Bracketology, Feb 11th: Breaking Down a Early Reveal, and What it Means for Selection Sunday

The NCAA Selection Committee expelled a exhibit of a tip 16 teams, one month out from Selection Sunday. So before we get to my projections for what will occur in a month, let’s go by a recover and see what it tells us. The sequence was as follows:

#1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue

#2 Seeds: Auburn, Kansas, Duke, Cincinnati

#3 Seeds: Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, North Carolina

#4 Seeds: Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, Oklahoma

I was extraordinary how a Committee would plan Michigan State. I’ve had them down as a 3 in new projections, not since we consider they go there, nonetheless since we felt a miss of tip tier wins would harm them. we consider that was borne out, even nonetheless they usually kick Purdue on Saturday for maybe their biggest of a year (my projections were formed on being a favorite to kick Purdue during home). Michigan State has 3 wins opposite a supposed Tier 1, and usually 5 games total, and nothing remaining until a Big Ten tournament.

You might blemish your conduct during a Kansas’ placement. we consider that’s a current greeting as this is not a selected Kansas team, and they usually took their 6th detriment on Saturday. But, they also have some-more Tier 1 wins than anyone, since while they’ve mislaid during home mixed times, they have combined large highway wins. (Tier 1 wins are kind of replacing a aged “vs. RPI Top 50,” nonetheless comment for plcae and now embody vs Top 30 during home, vs Top 50 neutral, and vs Top 75 on a road). If we know anything about how a cabinet selects and seeds, they like large wins in comparing teams with identical RPI. By my severe count, a teams with a many Tier 1 wins to date are: Kansas (9), Villanova and Virginia (7), and Xavier, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Florida (6).

Which brings us to a Oklahoma inclusion as a 4-seed after their new run of losses. we don’t know that they reason that mark (I’m raised them to continue to dump as they’ve got their flaws) nonetheless a reason they are there is since there is no good claimant for that final mark yet, and they have a lot of peculiarity wins. By that same token, though, I’m astounded a cabinet had Texas Tech subsequent Kansas. If a Red Raiders finish a brush in Lubbock, we gamble that changes.

So a lesson, that we already knew from past experience, is that a Committee will inflate large wins (while kind of ignoring series of opportunities, as Oklahoma is a sincerely normal 6-6 in Tier 1 games).

Now to a projections:

Sure, a lot could change over a subsequent month. Purdue has a many gossamer reason on a #1 seed, and could see any of a tip 10 teams removing a #1 seed, nonetheless a safest prophecy is that things will mostly hold, since there is a good opening between Virginia, Villanova, and Xavier (after this week’s wins) and a rest.

Texas Tech is we consider a best claimant to get a 1-seed of those outward (and we have them relocating past Kansas to a #2), followed by Auburn.

Further down, Texas AM has rebounded after a severe start in SEC play and is behind inside a tip 20 in a RPI, and has lots of peculiarity wins. I’ve got them as my claimant to fill that spot. Kentucky will be an engaging one, as they have been free-falling, nonetheless a RPI is still good. Gonzaga has as many tip wins as a large discussion brethren and should get a good seed after avenging their usually WCC detriment by violence St. Mary’s.

 

Creighton had a heart-breaking detriment to Xavier on a tainted with 0.3 seconds left. Unfortunately, they are now 1-6 in Tier 1 games and don’t have a peculiarity highway win. we consider that will start to impact them in a seeding, so we have them dropping. Virginia Tech’s large win during Virginia vaulted them into a margin in my projections, and a ACC is going to be tight. I’ve also got Baylor now in a margin in a play-in mark after violence Kansas, while Kansas State is out (Baylor has a improved RPI). Temple seems to be out of a lot of brackets, nonetheless a RPI is in a Top 50 and they have wins over Auburn, Clemson, and Wichita State. If they don’t finish poorly, they will be this year’s Vanderbilt profile.

Of a teams that are usually out now, Kansas State is going to be on a burble into a Big 12 tourney, blank opportunities during home opposite both Kansas and Texas Tech recently. Boise State contingency get a win over Nevada. St. Bonaventure is an engaging one. Of their 4 Tier 1 wins (or projected wins), dual are opposite Buffalo and Vermont. They also have a highway win during Syracuse so they need to kick Rhode Island.

I’ll do a some-more in-depth relapse of a burble this week to go into this list.

 

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