Has The GameStop Bear Finally Won By Killing Technology Brands?

Friday morning, GameStop (NYSE:GME) released a press recover stating 2017 holiday sales results. The full press release can be found on a website. Any financier value their income will do themselves a preference of reading a whole text, so I’ll refrain from needlessly repeating many of a information. Instead, we can sum adult a formula with dual statements:

  1. Sales opposite scarcely a whole business increasing contra 2016 sales with a vicious disproportion of Technology Brands.
  2. Technology Brands during GameStop has turn a large failure.

GameStop reiterates a 2017 annual superintendence for a association and for Technology Brands

GameStop as a whole is still handling in line with altogether government expectations. Throughout 2017, government released and has reiterated practiced gain superintendence of $3.10 to $3.40 per share. That has hold loyal following a holiday sales. The categorical change is that it’s given clarity that a final outcome will be in a center of a range.

For a functions via a rest of this article, we will assume GameStop will news adjusted gain of $3.25 per share. we will also omit a disproportion between GAAP gain and non-GAAP earnings. Although they are opposite with GameStop’s reported numbers, they are amply tighten together that my research will not be impacted by regulating one series over a other.

Our concentration of this essay is Technology Brands. Technology Brands was guided in 2017 to acquire between $75 and $90 million. This series was endorsed by GameStop’s government in a many new gain release. So, no change on a surface. However, there has been a poignant decrease underlying this business, as we mangle down in a subsequent section.

GameStop is essay off $350 million to $400 million of equity value from a Technology Brands business.

There unequivocally is no improved approach to plead this besides quoting directly from the source press release:

“…the Company expects to record non-cash spoil charges in a operation of $350 million to $400 million, essentially associated to a Technology Brands business. The spoil charges are essentially due to a disastrous impact of a longer ascent cycle for new mobile inclination and a changes done by ATT to a remuneration structure in 2017.”

Now, let’s inspect this proclamation in detail. First, a spoil assign is not solely associated to a Technology Brands business. That’s critical given it introduces some doubt in a analysis. We can’t customarily assume a $400 million write-off of a Technology Brands business.

However, we do have some serve information. The Technology Brands is a primary contributor. We also know both from this press recover and from before gain reports that a changes in ATT’s (NYSE:T) remuneration structure have been carrying a disastrous change for some time.

Let’s cruise some choice impacts that competence be enclosed in this write-off. Our idea is directly in a press release. We’re told that a year-end superintendence excludes both store closings and taxation effects from a Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Tax effects are a cash-based impairment, that is privately excluded, so a customarily other categorical object is expected associated to store closings.

We know that GameStop is consistently shutting between 1% and 3% of a store bottom any year as it trims a fat from a overhead. Money-losing stores are cut and a top profitability stores are kept. we would theory that we competence see a poignant additional outcome here in a Technology Brands business. The disastrous change in ATT’s remuneration structure creates Technology Brands stores a aim for closings not customarily in 2017 though also all destiny years as they have a new reduce baseline of profitability.

In conclusion, nonetheless store closings are positively an enclosed object here, justification would advise that it’s a comparatively tiny object of this $350-400 million operation due to a remuneration structure and iPhone effects occurring after in a year. Therefore, we will assume a Technology Brands write-off is accurately $350 million for 2017 via a residue of a article.

An item spoil assign of $350 million totally eliminates all of GameStop’s 2017 reported profit

Do NOT blink a outcome of this spoil charge. Although GameStop has actively been obscure a superb series of shares, new information advise that 101.5 million shares sojourn superb per a subsequent chart.

GME Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) information by YCharts

The $3.25 per share practiced gain figure that we dynamic progressing in a essay and some simple math concede us to discriminate a pre-impairment assign annual gain figure of $329.9 million. If we subtract an item spoil assign of $350 million, GameStop is looking during posting an annual LOSS of (-$20.1 million) for a mercantile year 2017.

GME Net Income (Annual) information by YCharts

As we can see by a above gain chart, it’s been scarcely 5 years given GameStop final reported an annual detriment in net income. This is a poignant eventuality that each financier should be discreet to ignore. In addition, I’ve been regressive with my assumptions and customarily used a $350 million spoil figure. If GameStop reports an item write-down in a high finish of this range, we should design a many incomparable annual detriment for mercantile 2017.

What does this mean?

Any investor, longhorn or bear, who expects GameStop to news a distinction for 2017 when it reports annual gain in Mar is in for a bold awakening. This is a intensity disastrous matter for a batch price, as many particular investors are expected to be taken off ensure by a reported figures.

Stock Price Impact of this Impairment Charge

The initial marketplace greeting has been fiercely negative. Over 10% of a batch cost has been wiped out in a singular day as of a time of this writing.

Before any longhorn claims this is an overreaction, there is a unequivocally good reason for this decline. GameStop’s marketplace top before to a proclamation was trending right around $2 billion for a equity. An spoil assign like this is a approach division from a equity value of a business. The assign subsequent shows how this one-day impact has already altered a marketplace top of a company.

GME Market Cap information by YCharts

As we can see, a new marketplace top is trending around $1.8 billion instead of $2 billion. In a brief term, this should be concerning for GameStop bulls. If we assume that GameStop’s equity was sincerely valued during $2 billion before to a impairment, afterwards we could righteously make an evidence that a new satisfactory value of a equity is approximately $1.65 billion. Instead of a stream scarcely $18 per share, this would design a batch to be valued as low as about $16 per share.

Before we emanate a charge of disastrous biased comments from GameStop bulls, commend that a above arrogance about GameStop being sincerely valued during $2 billion is not substantial within my research of GameStop’s value. we simply am creation a indicate that an financier needs to investigate this spoil as a approach detriment of equity value.

How should an financier value a Technology Brands business now?

One pivotal ability investors should remember is that spoil charges are customarily associated to merger costs, either approach or indirect. In this case, a Technology Brands business was directly acquired by purchases of other companies. GameStop has spent at slightest $784 million in stockholder money to acquire a Technology Brands business over a past 4 years.

Again regulating a benchmark of $350 million spoil to a Technology Brands segment, we can see that GameStop’s government views a business as carrying mislaid during slightest 44% of a value ($350 million/$784 million = 44%).

I consider regulating turn numbers is profitable here, so a arrogance we would make is a approach 50% dump in any Technology Brands expectations that you’ve seen previously. Considering government noticed Technology Brands as a expansion engine for a company, we would also assume that perspective has altered considerably.

If I’m a longhorn or a bear financier in GameStop, we would assume that Technology Brands sees 0 expansion or disastrous expansion into a destiny formed on this announcement. Clearly, a change in remuneration structure from ATT has henceforth broken a value of this business. The delayed iPhone roll-out might have influenced annual sales, though a pivotal is this remuneration turn change, as it affects long-term sales.

The Bull Case for GameStop investors has unequivocally weakened

In summary, there is no doubt that GameStop is a weaker association after this proclamation than it was beforehand. 20% of GameStop’s marketplace top has been created off by government as a finish loss. we would disagree that Technology Brands was even some-more critical to a destiny of GameStop than this 20% suggests given it was one of customarily dual expansion engines for a company.

Previously, GameStop was a association confronting physical decline, though with dual expansion engines in Technology Brands and Collectibles. Now, it’s a association confronting physical decline, though with customarily a singular expansion engine.

Is there still wish for bulls? Absolutely.

Collectibles are projected to turn an even incomparable attention than a video diversion industry, and GameStop shareholders possess a pivotal actor with a auxiliary ThinkGeek. This is a pivotal item and anyone who analyzes a products knows that it has strike a goldmine. However, a diversified expansion inlet is gone.

I’ll finish adult with customarily a integrate pivotal longhorn arguments that still hold:

1. GameStop is still labelled during a low P/E ratio for destiny looking profits.

2. GameStop offers a high division that continues to demeanour sustainable.

Unfortunately, that’s unequivocally a saving beauty for a bulls. Will that be enough? Please share your views in a comments below.

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Disclosure: I am/we are prolonged GME.

I wrote this essay myself, and it expresses my possess opinions. we am not receiving remuneration for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). we have no business attribute with any association whose batch is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I owned GameStop shares before this announcement.

I also purchased additional GameStop shares following this proclamation though before to a announcement of this article.

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